For those of you who are new to ‘collecting’ we want to give you some quick information to get you up to speed.
First, it’s all about supply, demand, psychology and statistics. Rare items, low in supply paired with huge demand create really interesting investment opportunities.
Second, it’s possible to find the supply of many collectible items. For example, this link is a searchable database of all the sports cards that PSA has ever graded. PSA is a company that authenticates collectibles, grades their condition from 1 to 10 and then encapsulates the collectible in a tamper-proof holder.
PSA Population Report (psacard.com)
For example: Derek Jeter’s rookie (first year) card that investors flock to is the 1993 Upper Deck SP. Upper Deck SP is the brand and the card is #279
While it’s unknown how many of this card were produced, we can get a hint of available supply by checking how many of these cards PSA has graded.
It might be tough to see, but check out the far right column. You can see only 21 of these cards have been graded a ‘Gem Mint’ 10 — out of more than 17,000 cards they have graded. Pair that with the millions of fans who love Derek Jeter, you can understand why this card has exploded in value from $30,000 to $200,000 in the past few years.
That’s supply and demand at work!
Where we can’t locate a clear supply, March.com has an algorithm that helps estimate the total supply based on frequency of sales as compared to other items that have sold with a clearly marked supply. We’ll share these findings in the future.
With everything we are researching, we are able to create real-time indices for every player, collectible category and much more. The Derek Jeter index is listed below. It’s interactive and up to the second accurate. Feel free to explore it.
In the near future, we will offer you tools to perform analysis on our indices and other data we are working with. We’ll be able assist you in your investment decisions.
We are also working with predictive models that have a great rate of success. We have analyzed over 10,000,000 memorabilia transactions to create unique clusters of collectibles using a proprietary algorithm we created. With this, we are able to compare asset prices against hundreds of other variables. For example, we’ve analyzed how on field performance moves prices. We have analyzed how economic factors such as the Dow Jones or NASDAQ affect values. We’ve spotted trends in pricing movement and we have also noticed how unemployment, volatility indices, money supply and the price of gold impact pricing. We’ll share all of this with you soon.
Here is a plot of one of our predictive models:
R2 of .98 means that the underlying factors that we’ve analyzed (whether it be on field statistics or economic factors) explain up to 98% of the assets pricing. That’s incredible!
Below is an interactive chart you can move. This encompasses everything we’ve discussed above. We created a unique index of a basket of collectible assets. We normalized all the prices from 0-5 so they could be easily displayed. We then plotted the sales prices on the graph, as shown. We then added predictability on top of it to show how accurate our models are and we smoothed the trend line. You can see our future market predictions to the right into 2021 and you can determine how accurate our calls have been so far.
With that in mind, these are the issues we are solving for you:
1. It is difficult to enter the collectibles space without prior knowledge.
2. The learning curve is incredibly steep if you want to take a position in this market.
3. There is no data or analysis to help you ‘get your head around’ this market.
4. There are no tools or data to help you analyze trends and make decisions. There are no indices to show you the health of the market at a glance and to help you spot trends and perform chart analysis.
5. Finally, there isn’t a company that can help you predict future movements.
As you can see from our indices, this collectibles market is volatile with incredible investment opportunities. Who knew, right?
It’s not your dads boring card collecting hobby anymore. Collectibles are a recognized asset class with major profit opportunities! You just need guidance on what to buy, and when. The volatility is exciting…
Let’s simply compare collectibles with gold, via our chart below:
This is a basket of collectibles, that we would recommend with historical performance compared to the gold market. As you can see, it’s much more volatile and behaves like crypto and other assets with wild price swings. This leads to increased investment opportunities – and more opportunity for us to advise you.
Let’s stay in touch. Sign up for our newsletter, below. We send out a monthly newsletter with great analysis that goes well beyond what we’ve shown above.
Thanks for taking this journey with us. Reach out with any questions you have!
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